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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.48 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger57%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger17%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger57% selection probability
Projected score2–1CSKA SofiaCherno More Varna
Expected goals2.48Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under55% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
57% / 26% / 17%MatchresultatHemmaseger57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (16.6%)Dubbelchans1X83.4%1.20
Över 45% · Under 55%Goals 2.5Under55%1.82
Ja 39% · Nej 61%Båda lagen gör målNej61%1.64
2.48 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
CSKA Sofia win57%1.75
Oavgjort26%3.85
Cherno More Varna win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CSKA Sofia1.87

Hemma share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals2.48Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 45% · Under 55%

Cherno More Varna0.61

Borta share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 39% · Nej 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalHemma won 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
17%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.87
Expected goals
0.61
CSKA SofiaCherno More Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CSKA Sofia signalHemma won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cherno More Varna signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CSKA Sofia vunnen 57%,Oavgjort 26%,Cherno More Varna vunnen 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.48 · Över 2.5 45% · Current selection Under