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BGR Bulgarije - Eerste divisie · Wedstrijd ·

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.48 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst57%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst17%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst57% selection probability
Projected score2–1CSKA SofiaCherno More Varna
Expected goals2.48Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder55% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
57% / 26% / 17%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (16.6%)Dubbele Kans1X83.4%1.20
Boven 45% · Onder 55%Goals 2.5Onder55%1.82
Ja 39% · Nee 61%Beide teams scorenNee61%1.64
2.48 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
CSKA Sofia win57%1.75
Gelijkspel26%3.85
Cherno More Varna win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CSKA Sofia1.87

Thuis share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals2.48Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 45% · Onder 55%

Cherno More Varna0.61

Uit share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 39% · Nee 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
17%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.87
Expected goals
0.61
CSKA SofiaCherno More Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CSKA Sofia signalThuis won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cherno More Varna signalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CSKA Sofia gewonnen 57%,Gelijkspel 26%,Cherno More Varna gewonnen 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.48 · Boven 2.5 45% · Current selection Onder