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BGR Bulharsko - Prvá liga · Zápas ·

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domáci form
Projected score1–11.89 expected goals
Hostia form
Výhra domácich44%
Remíza32%
Výhra hostí23%
Full model forecastVýhra domácichTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácich44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Expected goals1.89Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menej71% for the selected side
Oba tímy skórujúNie65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.4Menej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýberPravdepodobnosťFérový kurz
44% / 32% / 23%Výsledok zápasuVýhra domácich44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Vratsa win (23.4%)Dvojitá šanca1X76.6%1.31
Viac 29% · Menej 71%Goals 2.5Menej71%1.41
Áno 35% · Nie 65%Oba tímy skórujúNie65%1.54
1.89 total expected goalsPresné skóre1–1
8.4 expected match cornersRohyMenej 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFérový kurz
Arda Kardzhali win44%2.27
Remíza32%3.13
Botev Vratsa win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arda Kardzhali1.23

Domáci share of expected goals 65.1%

Total expected goals1.89Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Viac 29% · Menej 71%

Botev Vratsa0.66

Hostia share of expected goals 34.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitÁno 35% · Nie 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domáci-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.40pts / match
Odohrané5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Body12

SignalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

Hostia-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.60pts / match
Odohrané5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Body3

SignalDomáci clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Výhra probability excluding draw
23%
12
Points from supplied form
3
1.23
Expected goals
0.66
Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arda Kardzhali signalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Vratsa signalDomáci clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácich · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arda Kardzhali výhra 44%,Remíza 32%,Botev Vratsa výhra 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.89 · Viac 2.5 29% · Current selection Menej