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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.72 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa20%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite54%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite54% selection probability
Projected score1–2Botev PlovdivLevski Sofia
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra51% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
20% / 26% / 54%Esito partitaVittoria ospite54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Plovdiv win (19.6%)Doppia ChanceX280.4%1.24
Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%Goals 2.5Sopra51%1.96
Sì 47% · No 53%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53%1.89
2.72 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
9.0 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Botev Plovdiv win20%5.00
Pareggio26%3.85
Levski Sofia win54%1.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv0.79

Casa share of expected goals 29%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%

Levski Sofia1.93

Trasferta share of expected goals 71%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

3.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punti15

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
20%
Vinta probability excluding draw
54%
6
Points from supplied form
15
0.79
Expected goals
1.93
Botev PlovdivLevski Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Levski Sofia signalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–2 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv vinta 20%,Pareggio 26%,Levski Sofia vinta 54%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Sopra 2.5 51% · Current selection Sopra