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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.35 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw26%
Away win37%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win37% selection probability
Projected score2–2Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Expected goals3.35Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over65% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 26% / 37%Match resultAway win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.5%)Double chance1273.5%1.36
Over 65% · Under 35%Goals 2.5Over65%1.54
Yes 66% · No 34%Both teams scoreYes66%1.52
3.35 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Dunav Ruse win36%2.78
Draw26%3.85
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunav Ruse1.65

Home share of expected goals 49.3%

Total expected goals3.35Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 65% · Under 35%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.70

Away share of expected goals 50.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 66% · No 34%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
2
1.65
Expected goals
1.70
Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunav Ruse signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunav Ruse win 36%,Draw 26%,Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.35 · Over 2.5 65% · Current selection Over