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FIN Finland - Veikkausliiga · Match ·

IF Gnistan vs TPS

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.66 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger36%
Oavgjort29%
Bortaseger35%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger36% selection probability
Projected score1–1IF GnistanTPS
Expected goals2.66Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under50% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
36% / 29% / 35%MatchresultatHemmaseger36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.9%)Dubbelchans1271.1%1.41
Över 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Under50%2.00
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Båda lagen gör målJa55%1.82
2.66 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.3 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
IF Gnistan win36%2.78
Oavgjort29%3.45
TPS win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

IF Gnistan1.34

Hemma share of expected goals 50.4%

Total expected goals2.66Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 50% · Under 50%

TPS1.32

Borta share of expected goals 49.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

IF Gnistan

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

TPS

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
35%
10
Points from supplied form
8
1.34
Expected goals
1.32
IF GnistanTPS
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01IF Gnistan signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02TPS signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

IF Gnistan vs TPS FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

IF Gnistan vunnen 36%,Oavgjort 29%,TPS vunnen 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.66 · Över 2.5 50% · Current selection Under