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FIN Finland - Veikkausliiga · Match ·

FC Ilves vs HJK Helsingfors

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–23.99 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger39%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger36%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger39% selection probability
Projected score2–2FC IlvesHJK Helsingfors
Expected goals3.99Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över76% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa75% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
39% / 25% / 36%MatchresultatHemmaseger39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.7%)Dubbelchans1275.3%1.33
Över 76% · Under 24%Goals 2.5Över76%1.32
Ja 75% · Nej 25%Båda lagen gör målJa75%1.33
3.99 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
10.6 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
FC Ilves win39%2.56
Oavgjort25%4.00
HJK Helsingfors win36%2.78

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves2.04

Hemma share of expected goals 51.1%

Total expected goals3.99Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 76% · Under 24%

HJK Helsingfors1.95

Borta share of expected goals 48.9%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 75% · Nej 25%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

HJK Helsingfors

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
36%
4
Points from supplied form
7
2.04
Expected goals
1.95
FC IlvesHJK Helsingfors
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HJK Helsingfors signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs HJK Helsingfors FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves vunnen 39%,Oavgjort 25%,HJK Helsingfors vunnen 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.99 · Över 2.5 76% · Current selection Över