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FIN Finnland - Veikkausliiga · Spiel ·

FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–23.99 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg39%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg36%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg39% selection probability
Projected score2–2FC IlvesHJK Helsinki
Expected goals3.99Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über76% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa75% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
39% / 25% / 36%SpielergebnisHeimsieg39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.7%)Doppelte Chance1275.3%1.33
Über 76% · Unter 24%Goals 2.5Über76%1.32
Ja 75% · Nein 25%Beide Teams treffenJa75%1.33
3.99 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–2
10.6 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
FC Ilves win39%2.56
Unentschieden25%4.00
HJK Helsinki win36%2.78

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves2.04

Heim share of expected goals 51.1%

Total expected goals3.99Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 76% · Unter 24%

HJK Helsinki1.95

Auswärts share of expected goals 48.9%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 75% · Nein 25%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

HJK Helsinki

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
36%
4
Points from supplied form
7
2.04
Expected goals
1.95
FC IlvesHJK Helsinki
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HJK Helsinki signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves Gewinn 39%,Unentschieden 25%,HJK Helsinki Gewinn 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.99 · Über 2.5 76% · Current selection Über