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ESP Spanien - La Liga · Match ·

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score3–13.76 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger63%
Oavgjort21%
Bortaseger16%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 63% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger63% selection probability
Projected score3–1Real MadridReal Sociedad
Expected goals3.76Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över72% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
63% / 21% / 16%MatchresultatHemmaseger63%1.59
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Real Sociedad win (15.6%)Dubbelchans1X84.4%1.18
Över 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Över72%1.39
Ja 58% · Nej 42%Båda lagen gör målJa58%1.72
3.76 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
9.8 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Real Madrid win63%1.59
Oavgjort21%4.76
Real Sociedad win16%6.25

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real Madrid2.81

Hemma share of expected goals 74.7%

Total expected goals3.76Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 72% · Under 28%

Real Sociedad0.95

Borta share of expected goals 25.3%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nej 42%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Real Madrid

2.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poäng13

SignalHemma unbeaten 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Real Sociedad

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
63%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
16%
13
Points from supplied form
6
2.81
Expected goals
0.95
Real MadridReal Sociedad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real Madrid signalHemma unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Real Sociedad signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk37% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 3–1 · 63% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real Madrid vunnen 63%,Oavgjort 21%,Real Sociedad vunnen 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.76 · Över 2.5 72% · Current selection Över