Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
64% / 21% / 16%Match resultHome win64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Real Sociedad win (15.6%)Double chance1X84.4%1.18
Over 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Over72%1.39
Yes 58% · No 42%Both teams scoreYes58%1.72
3.76 total expected goalsCorrect score3–1——
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Real Madrid win64%1.56
Draw21%4.76
Real Sociedad win16%6.25
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 74.7%
Total expected goals3.76Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 72% · Under 28%
Away share of expected goals 25.3%
Projected score3–1BTTS splitYes 58% · No 42%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.60pts / matchReal Madrid
WWDWW
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13
SignalHome unbeaten 5/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchReal Sociedad
LLLWW
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
64%
Win probability excluding draw
16%13
Points from supplied form
62.81
Expected goals
0.95Real MadridReal Sociedad
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.
Match questions
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 3–1 · 64% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Real Madrid win 64%，Draw 21%，Real Sociedad win 16%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 3.76 · Over 2.5 72% · Current selection Over。