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BGR Bulgarije - Eerste divisie · Wedstrijd ·

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst69%
Gelijkspel20%
Uitwinst12%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 69% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst69% selection probability
Projected score2–1Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder57% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
69% / 20% / 12%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst69%1.45
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (11.5%)Dubbele Kans1X88.5%1.13
Boven 43% · Onder 57%Goals 2.5Onder57%1.75
Ja 35% · Nee 65%Beide teams scorenNee65%1.54
2.41 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapLevski Sofia winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win69%1.451.3868.4%+0.6 pp
Gelijkspel20%5.004.7519.9%+0.1 pp
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win12%8.338.0011.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia1.89

Thuis share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 43% · Onder 57%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.52

Uit share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nee 65%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis unbeaten 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
69%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
12%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.89
Expected goals
0.52
Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalThuis unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk31% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 69% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia gewonnen 69%,Gelijkspel 20%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv gewonnen 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Boven 2.5 43% · Current selection Onder