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BGR Bulgaria - Primera Liga · Partido ·

Levski Sofía vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local69%
Empate20%
Victoria visitante12%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 69% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local69% selection probability
Projected score2–1Levski SofíaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de57% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
69% / 20% / 12%Resultado del partidoVictoria local69%1.45
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (11.5%)Doble Oportunidad1X88.5%1.13
Más de 43% · Menos de 57%Goals 2.5Menos de57%1.75
Sí 35% · No 65%Ambos equipos marcanNo65%1.54
2.41 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
8.9 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapLevski Sofía winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofía win69%1.451.3868.4%+0.6 pp
Empate20%5.004.7519.9%+0.1 pp
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win12%8.338.0011.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofía1.89

Local share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 43% · Menos de 57%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.52

Visitante share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 35% · No 65%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Levski Sofía

2.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puntos13

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puntos7

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
69%
Ganado probability excluding draw
12%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.89
Expected goals
0.52
Levski SofíaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofía signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk31% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Levski Sofía vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 69% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofía ganada 69%,Empate 20%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv ganada 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Más de 2.5 43% · Current selection Menos de