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BGR Bulgarien - 1. Liga · Spiel ·

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg69%
Unentschieden20%
Auswärtssieg12%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 69% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg69% selection probability
Projected score2–1Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter57% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
69% / 20% / 12%SpielergebnisHeimsieg69%1.45
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (11.5%)Doppelte Chance1X88.5%1.13
Über 43% · Unter 57%Goals 2.5Unter57%1.75
Ja 35% · Nein 65%Beide Teams treffenNein65%1.54
2.41 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
8.9 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapLevski Sofia winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win69%1.451.3868.4%+0.6 pp
Unentschieden20%5.004.7519.9%+0.1 pp
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win12%8.338.0011.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia1.89

Heim share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 43% · Unter 57%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.52

Auswärts share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nein 65%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punkte13

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
69%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
12%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.89
Expected goals
0.52
Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk31% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 69% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia Gewinn 69%,Unentschieden 20%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv Gewinn 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Über 2.5 43% · Current selection Unter