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PRT Portugal Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

FC Porto vs Alverca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–02.67 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier68%
Uavgjort22%
Borteseier10%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 68% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier68% selection probability
Projected score2–0FC PortoAlverca
Expected goals2.67Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under50% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei70% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
68% / 22% / 10%KampresultatHjemmeseier68%1.47
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alverca win (10%)Dobbel sjanse1X90%1.11
Over 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Under50%2.00
Ja 30% · Nei 70%Begge lag scorerNei70%1.43
2.67 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–0
9.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
FC Porto win68%1.47
Uavgjort22%4.55
Alverca win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Porto2.27

Hjemme share of expected goals 85%

Total expected goals2.67Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 50% · Under 50%

Alverca0.40

Borte share of expected goals 15%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitJa 30% · Nei 70%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

FC Porto

1.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poeng9

SignalHjemme won 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Alverca

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poeng4

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
68%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
10%
9
Points from supplied form
4
2.27
Expected goals
0.40
FC PortoAlverca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Porto signalHjemme won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alverca signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk32% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FC Porto vs Alverca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–0 · 68% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Porto vunnet 68%,Uavgjort 22%,Alverca vunnet 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.67 · Over 2.5 50% · Current selection Under