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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

FC Porto vs Alverca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–02.67 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg68%
Unentschieden22%
Auswärtssieg10%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 68% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg68% selection probability
Projected score2–0FC PortoAlverca
Expected goals2.67Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter50% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein70% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
68% / 22% / 10%SpielergebnisHeimsieg68%1.47
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alverca win (10.1%)Doppelte Chance1X89.9%1.11
Über 50% · Unter 50%Goals 2.5Unter50%2.00
Ja 30% · Nein 70%Beide Teams treffenNein70%1.43
2.67 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–0
9.2 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
FC Porto win68%1.47
Unentschieden22%4.55
Alverca win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Porto2.27

Heim share of expected goals 85%

Total expected goals2.67Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 50% · Unter 50%

Alverca0.40

Auswärts share of expected goals 15%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitJa 30% · Nein 70%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Porto

1.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punkte9

SignalHeim won 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Alverca

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
68%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
10%
9
Points from supplied form
4
2.27
Expected goals
0.40
FC PortoAlverca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Porto signalHeim won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alverca signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk32% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FC Porto vs Alverca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–0 · 68% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Porto Gewinn 68%,Unentschieden 22%,Alverca Gewinn 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.67 · Über 2.5 50% · Current selection Unter