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PRT Portugalsko - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

FC Porto vs Alverca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score2–02.68 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích68%
Remíza22%
Výhra hostů10%
Full model forecastVýhra domácíchTier A · 68% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácích68% selection probability
Projected score2–0FC PortoAlverca
Expected goals2.68Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Méně50% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíNe70% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Méně 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
68% / 22% / 10%Výsledek zápasuVýhra domácích68%1.47
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alverca win (10%)Dvojitá šance1X90%1.11
Více 50% · Méně 50%Goals 2.5Méně50%2.00
Ano 30% · Ne 70%Oba týmy skórujíNe70%1.43
2.68 total expected goalsPřesné skóre2–0
9.2 expected match cornersRohyMéně 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ne snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFérový kurz
FC Porto win68%1.47
Remíza22%4.55
Alverca win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Porto2.28

Domácí share of expected goals 85.1%

Total expected goals2.68Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Více 50% · Méně 50%

Alverca0.40

Hosté share of expected goals 14.9%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitAno 30% · Ne 70%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

FC Porto

1.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Body9

SignalDomácí won 3/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

Alverca

0.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Body4

SignalDomácí clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
68%
Výhra probability excluding draw
10%
9
Points from supplied form
4
2.28
Expected goals
0.40
FC PortoAlverca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Porto signalDomácí won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alverca signalDomácí clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk32% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FC Porto vs Alverca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácích · Projected score 2–0 · 68% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Porto výhra 68%,Remíza 22%,Alverca výhra 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.68 · Více 2.5 50% · Current selection Méně