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PRT Portugal Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Moreirense vs Braga

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–22.59 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier19%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier56%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier56% selection probability
Projected score1–2MoreirenseBraga
Expected goals2.59Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under52% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
19% / 25% / 56%KampresultatBorteseier56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Moreirense win (19.1%)Dobbel sjanseX280.9%1.24
Over 48% · Under 52%Goals 2.5Under52%1.92
Ja 50% · Nei 50%Begge lag scorerJa50%2.00
2.59 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
8.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapBraga winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Moreirense win19%5.265.0018.8%+0.2 pp
Uavgjort25%4.003.8024.8%+0.2 pp
Braga win56%1.791.6756.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Moreirense0.98

Hjemme share of expected goals 37.8%

Total expected goals2.59Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 48% · Under 52%

Braga1.61

Borte share of expected goals 62.2%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 50% · Nei 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Moreirense

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Braga

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalHjemme unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
19%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
56%
7
Points from supplied form
11
0.98
Expected goals
1.61
MoreirenseBraga
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Moreirense signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Braga signalHjemme unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Moreirense vs Braga FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Moreirense vunnet 19%,Uavgjort 25%,Braga vunnet 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.59 · Over 2.5 48% · Current selection Under