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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Real Espana vs Genesis de Comayagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Away form
Home win62%
Draw23%
Away win15%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win62% selection probability
Projected score2–1Real EspanaGenesis de Comayagua
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
62% / 23% / 15%Match resultHome win62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Genesis de Comayagua win (15.2%)Double chance1X84.8%1.18
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
2.90 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapReal Espana winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Real Espana win62%1.611.4462.5%-0.5 pp
Draw23%4.354.0022.5%+0.5 pp
Genesis de Comayagua win15%6.676.0015%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real Espana1.94

Home share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

Genesis de Comayagua0.96

Away share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Real Espana

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Genesis de Comayagua

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
62%
Win probability excluding draw
15%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.94
Expected goals
0.96
Real EspanaGenesis de Comayagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real Espana signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Genesis de Comayagua signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Real Espana vs Genesis de Comayagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real Espana win 62%,Draw 23%,Genesis de Comayagua win 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over