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HND Honduras - Lega Nazionale · Round 1 ·

Real Espana vs Genesis de Comayagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa62%
Pareggio23%
Vittoria ospite15%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa62% selection probability
Projected score2–1Real EspanaGenesis de Comayagua
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra55% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
62% / 23% / 15%Esito partitaVittoria casa62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Genesis de Comayagua win (15.2%)Doppia Chance1X84.8%1.18
Sopra 55% · Sotto 45%Goals 2.5Sopra55%1.82
Sì 53% · No 47%Entrambe le squadre segnano53%1.89
2.90 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapReal Espana winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Real Espana win62%1.611.4462.5%-0.5 pp
Pareggio23%4.354.0022.5%+0.5 pp
Genesis de Comayagua win15%6.676.0015%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real Espana1.94

Casa share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 55% · Sotto 45%

Genesis de Comayagua0.96

Trasferta share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Real Espana

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Genesis de Comayagua

1.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punti8

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
62%
Vinta probability excluding draw
15%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.94
Expected goals
0.96
Real EspanaGenesis de Comayagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real Espana signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Genesis de Comayagua signalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Real Espana vs Genesis de Comayagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real Espana vinta 62%,Pareggio 23%,Genesis de Comayagua vinta 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Sopra 2.5 55% · Current selection Sopra