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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Real España vs Génesis de Comayagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa51%
Empate26%
Vitória visitante22%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Real EspañaGénesis de Comayagua
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Acima55% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
51% / 26% / 22%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Génesis de Comayagua win (22.4%)Dupla Chance1X77.6%1.29
Acima 55% · Abaixo 45%Goals 2.5Acima55%1.82
Sim 53% · Não 47%Ambas as equipes marcamSim53%1.89
2.90 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–1
9.3 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Não snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityOdds justas
Real España win51%1.96
Empate26%3.85
Génesis de Comayagua win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real España1.94

Mandante share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 55% · Abaixo 45%

Génesis de Comayagua0.96

Visitante share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitSim 53% · Não 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Real España

1.40pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Pontos7

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Génesis de Comayagua

1.60pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Pontos8

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.94
Expected goals
0.96
Real EspañaGénesis de Comayagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real España signalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Génesis de Comayagua signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Real España vs Génesis de Comayagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real España ganhou 51%,Empate 26%,Génesis de Comayagua ganhou 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Acima 2.5 55% · Current selection Acima