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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Real España vs Genesis de Comayagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde62%
Egal23%
Victorie oaspeți15%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde62% selection probability
Projected score2–1Real EspañaGenesis de Comayagua
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste55% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
62% / 23% / 15%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Genesis de Comayagua win (15.2%)Șansă dublă1X84.8%1.18
Peste 55% · Sub 45%Goals 2.5Peste55%1.82
Da 53% · Nu 47%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa53%1.89
2.90 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapReal España winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Real España win62%1.611.4462.5%-0.5 pp
Egal23%4.354.0022.5%+0.5 pp
Genesis de Comayagua win15%6.676.0015%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real España1.94

Gazde share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 55% · Sub 45%

Genesis de Comayagua0.96

Oaspeți share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 53% · Nu 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Real España

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Genesis de Comayagua

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
62%
Câștig probability excluding draw
15%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.94
Expected goals
0.96
Real EspañaGenesis de Comayagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real España signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Genesis de Comayagua signalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Real España vs Genesis de Comayagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real España câștig 62%,Egal 23%,Genesis de Comayagua câștig 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Peste 2.5 55% · Current selection Peste