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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.50 expected goals
Away form
Home win29%
Draw29%
Away win42%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
29% / 29% / 42%Match resultAway win42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lobos UPNFM win (28.9%)Double chanceX271.1%1.41
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreYes50%2.00
2.50 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Lobos UPNFM win29%3.45
Draw29%3.45
Olancho FC win42%2.38

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lobos UPNFM1.04

Home share of expected goals 41.6%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Olancho FC1.46

Away share of expected goals 58.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Lobos UPNFM

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Olancho FC

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Win probability excluding draw
42%
1
Points from supplied form
7
1.04
Expected goals
1.46
Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lobos UPNFM signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Olancho FC signalAway unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lobos UPNFM win 29%,Draw 29%,Olancho FC win 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under