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BRA Brazil Serie D · Fixture ·

Goiatuba vs ASA

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.76 expected goals
Away form
Home win37%
Draw34%
Away win29%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win37% selection probability
Projected score1–1GoiatubaASA
Expected goals1.76Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under74% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo66% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 34% / 29%Match resultHome win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ASA win (29.3%)Double chance1X70.7%1.41
Over 26% · Under 74%Goals 2.5Under74%1.35
Yes 34% · No 66%Both teams scoreNo66%1.52
1.76 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Goiatuba win37%2.70
Draw34%2.94
ASA win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Goiatuba0.98

Home share of expected goals 55.7%

Total expected goals1.76Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 26% · Under 74%

ASA0.78

Away share of expected goals 44.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 34% · No 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Goiatuba

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

ASA

3.00pts / match
Played5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Win probability excluding draw
29%
12
Points from supplied form
15
0.98
Expected goals
0.78
GoiatubaASA
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Goiatuba signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ASA signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Goiatuba vs ASA FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Goiatuba win 37%,Draw 34%,ASA win 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.76 · Over 2.5 26% · Current selection Under