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BRA Brazil Serie D · Fixture ·

Sao Jose RS vs Gama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.70 expected goals
Away form
Home win23%
Draw33%
Away win44%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sao Jose RSGama
Expected goals1.70Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under76% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo69% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
23% / 33% / 44%Match resultAway win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sao Jose RS win (23.4%)Double chanceX276.6%1.31
Over 24% · Under 76%Goals 2.5Under76%1.32
Yes 31% · No 69%Both teams scoreNo69%1.45
1.70 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapSao Jose RS winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sao Jose RS win23%4.353.8023.6%-0.6 pp
Draw33%3.032.7532.6%+0.4 pp
Gama win44%2.272.0543.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sao Jose RS0.64

Home share of expected goals 37.6%

Total expected goals1.70Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 24% · Under 76%

Gama1.06

Away share of expected goals 62.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 31% · No 69%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Sao Jose RS

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Gama

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Win probability excluding draw
44%
8
Points from supplied form
12
0.64
Expected goals
1.06
Sao Jose RSGama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sao Jose RS signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Gama signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Sao Jose RS vs Gama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sao Jose RS win 23%,Draw 33%,Gama win 44%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.70 · Over 2.5 24% · Current selection Under