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BEL Belgium First Division A · Round 1 ·

Charleroi vs OH Leuven

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.31 expected goals
Away form
Home win44%
Draw30%
Away win26%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win44% selection probability
Projected score1–1CharleroiOH Leuven
Expected goals2.31Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners11.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 30% / 26%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes OH Leuven win (26.3%)Double chance1X73.7%1.36
Over 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.31 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
11.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Charleroi win44%2.27
Draw30%3.33
OH Leuven win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charleroi1.42

Home share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.31Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 41% · Under 59%

OH Leuven0.89

Away share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Charleroi

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

OH Leuven

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalNo recent signal

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Win probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
5
1.42
Expected goals
0.89
CharleroiOH Leuven
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charleroi signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02OH Leuven signalNo recent signal

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Charleroi vs OH Leuven FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charleroi win 44%,Draw 30%,OH Leuven win 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.31 · Over 2.5 41% · Current selection Under