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BEL Belgien - 1. division A · Round 1 ·

Charleroi vs OH Leuven

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.31 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr44%
Uafgjort30%
Udesejr26%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr44% selection probability
Projected score1–1CharleroiOH Leuven
Expected goals2.31Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej55% for the selected side
Expected corners11.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
44% / 30% / 26%KampresultatHjemmesejr44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes OH Leuven win (26.3%)Dobbeltchance1X73.7%1.36
Over 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Ja 45% · Nej 55%Begge hold scorerNej55%1.82
2.31 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
11.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Charleroi win44%2.27
Uafgjort30%3.33
OH Leuven win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charleroi1.42

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.31Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 41% · Under 59%

OH Leuven0.89

Ude share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 45% · Nej 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Charleroi

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

OH Leuven

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalNej recent signal

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vundet probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
5
1.42
Expected goals
0.89
CharleroiOH Leuven
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charleroi signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02OH Leuven signalNej recent signal

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Charleroi vs OH Leuven FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charleroi vundet 44%,Uafgjort 30%,OH Leuven vundet 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.31 · Over 2.5 41% · Current selection Under