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JPN Japon - J-League · Round 1 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile32%
Nul30%
Victoire à l’extérieur38%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur38% selection probability
Projected score1–1V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de58% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
32% / 30% / 38%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.1%)Double chance1269.9%1.43
Plus de 42% · Moins de 58%Goals 2.5Moins de58%1.72
Oui 48% · Non 52%Les deux équipes marquentNon52%1.92
2.36 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
V-Varen Nagasaki win32%3.13
Nul30%3.33
Kyoto Sanga FC win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

V-Varen Nagasaki1.09

Domicile share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 42% · Moins de 58%

Kyoto Sanga FC1.27

Extérieur share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 48% · Non 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Kyoto Sanga FC

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalExtérieur failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Gagné probability excluding draw
38%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.09
Expected goals
1.27
V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01V-Varen Nagasaki signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kyoto Sanga FC signalExtérieur failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

V-Varen Nagasaki victoire 32%,Nul 30%,Kyoto Sanga FC victoire 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · Plus de 2.5 42% · Current selection Moins de