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JPN Japan - J-League · Round 1 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr30%
Uafgjort29%
Udesejr40%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr40% selection probability
Projected score1–1V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
30% / 29% / 40%KampresultatUdesejr40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.4%)Dobbeltchance1270.6%1.42
Over 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Begge hold scorerNej52%1.92
2.36 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
V-Varen Nagasaki win30%3.333.1030.4%-0.4 pp
Uafgjort29%3.453.2029.5%-0.5 pp
Kyoto Sanga FC win40%2.502.3540.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

V-Varen Nagasaki1.09

Hjemme share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 42% · Under 58%

Kyoto Sanga FC1.27

Ude share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

0.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Point4

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Kyoto Sanga FC

0.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Point4

SignalUde failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
30%
Vundet probability excluding draw
40%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.09
Expected goals
1.27
V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01V-Varen Nagasaki signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kyoto Sanga FC signalUde failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

V-Varen Nagasaki vundet 30%,Uafgjort 29%,Kyoto Sanga FC vundet 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · Over 2.5 42% · Current selection Under