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JPN Japan - J-League · Round 1 ·

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr43%
Uafgjort28%
Udesejr29%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-Pulse
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
43% / 28% / 29%KampresultatHjemmesejr43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Dobbeltchance1271.8%1.39
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Begge hold scorerJa55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Nagoya Grampus win43%2.33
Uafgjort28%3.57
Shimizu S-Pulse win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nagoya Grampus1.59

Hjemme share of expected goals 58.2%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Shimizu S-Pulse1.14

Ude share of expected goals 41.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Nagoya Grampus

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Point9

SignalHjemme won 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Shimizu S-Pulse

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vundet probability excluding draw
29%
9
Points from supplied form
5
1.59
Expected goals
1.14
Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-Pulse
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nagoya Grampus signalHjemme won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shimizu S-Pulse signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nagoya Grampus vundet 43%,Uafgjort 28%,Shimizu S-Pulse vundet 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over