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JPN Giappone - J-League · Round 1 ·

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite29%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-Pulse
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra51% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 28% / 29%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Doppia Chance1271.8%1.39
Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%Goals 2.5Sopra51%1.96
Sì 55% · No 45%Entrambe le squadre segnano55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Nagoya Grampus win43%2.33
Pareggio28%3.57
Shimizu S-Pulse win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nagoya Grampus1.59

Casa share of expected goals 58.2%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%

Shimizu S-Pulse1.14

Trasferta share of expected goals 41.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Nagoya Grampus

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punti9

SignalCasa won 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Shimizu S-Pulse

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
29%
9
Points from supplied form
5
1.59
Expected goals
1.14
Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-Pulse
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nagoya Grampus signalCasa won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shimizu S-Pulse signalCasa matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nagoya Grampus vinta 43%,Pareggio 28%,Shimizu S-Pulse vinta 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Sopra 2.5 51% · Current selection Sopra