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JPN 日本J聯賽 · Round 1 ·

長崎成功丸 vs 京都不死鳥

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

主隊 form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
客隊 form
主勝30%
29%
客勝40%
Full model forecast客勝Tier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary call客勝40% selection probability
Projected score1–1長崎成功丸京都不死鳥
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.558% for the selected side
雙方進球52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2大 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market投注機率公平賠率
30% / 29% / 40%比賽結果客勝40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.4%)雙重機會1270.6%1.42
大 42% · 小 58%Goals 2.558%1.72
是 48% · 否 52%雙方進球52%1.92
2.36 total expected goals正確比分1–1
10.2 expected match corners角球大 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.5 pp
Outcome預測公平賠率Reference oddsNormalized marketDifference
長崎成功丸 win30%3.333.1030.4%-0.4 pp
29%3.453.2029.5%-0.5 pp
京都不死鳥 win40%2.502.3540.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

長崎成功丸1.09

主隊 share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: 42% · 58%

京都不死鳥1.27

客隊 share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 48% · 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

主隊-context · form sequence

長崎成功丸

0.80pts / match
5Wins1Drawn1Losses3積分4

Signal主隊 matches over 2.5: 4/5

客隊-context · form sequence

京都不死鳥

0.80pts / match
5Wins1Drawn1Losses3積分4

Signal客隊 failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
30%
贏 probability excluding draw
40%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.09
Expected goals
1.27
長崎成功丸京都不死鳥
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01長崎成功丸 signal主隊 matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02京都不死鳥 signal客隊 failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 平 probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

長崎成功丸 vs 京都不死鳥 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: 客勝 · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

長崎成功丸 30%, 29%,京都不死鳥 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · 大2.5 42% · Current selection