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JPN Japán - J-League · Round 1 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem32%
Döntetlen30%
Vendég győzelem38%
Full model forecastVendég győzelemTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVendég győzelem38% selection probability
Projected score1–1V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alatt58% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Felett 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
32% / 30% / 38%Mérkőzés eredményeVendég győzelem38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.1%)Dupla esély1269.9%1.43
Felett 42% · Alatt 58%Goals 2.5Alatt58%1.72
Igen 48% · Nem 52%Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem52%1.92
2.36 total expected goalsPontos eredmény1–1
10.2 expected match cornersSzögletekFelett 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nem snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityValós odds
V-Varen Nagasaki win32%3.13
Döntetlen30%3.33
Kyoto Sanga FC win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

V-Varen Nagasaki1.09

Hazai share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Felett 42% · Alatt 58%

Kyoto Sanga FC1.27

Vendég share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitIgen 48% · Nem 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

0.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Pontok4

SignalHazai matches over 2.5: 4/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

Kyoto Sanga FC

0.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Pontok4

SignalVendég failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Nyert probability excluding draw
38%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.09
Expected goals
1.27
V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01V-Varen Nagasaki signalHazai matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kyoto Sanga FC signalVendég failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vendég győzelem · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

V-Varen Nagasaki nyer 32%,Döntetlen 30%,Kyoto Sanga FC nyer 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · 2.5 felett 42% · Current selection Alatt