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JPN Jaapani J-League · Round 1 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Kodu form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
Võõras form
Koduvõit32%
Viik30%
Võõrsilvõit38%
Full model forecastVõõrsilvõitTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVõõrsilvõit38% selection probability
Projected score1–1V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alla58% for the selected side
Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Üle 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValikTõenäosusÕiglane koefitsient
32% / 30% / 38%Mängu tulemusVõõrsilvõit38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.1%)Topeltvõimalus1269.9%1.43
Üle 42% · Alla 58%Goals 2.5Alla58%1.72
Jah 48% · Ei 52%Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi52%1.92
2.36 total expected goalsTäpne skoor1–1
10.2 expected match cornersNurgalöögidÜle 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityÕiglane koefitsient
V-Varen Nagasaki win32%3.13
Viik30%3.33
Kyoto Sanga FC win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

V-Varen Nagasaki1.09

Kodu share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üle 42% · Alla 58%

Kyoto Sanga FC1.27

Võõras share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJah 48% · Ei 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Kodu-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

0.80pts / match
Mängitud5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punktid4

SignalKodu matches over 2.5: 4/5

Võõras-context · form sequence

Kyoto Sanga FC

0.80pts / match
Mängitud5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punktid4

SignalVõõras failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Võit probability excluding draw
38%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.09
Expected goals
1.27
V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01V-Varen Nagasaki signalKodu matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kyoto Sanga FC signalVõõras failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Viik probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Võõrsilvõit · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

V-Varen Nagasaki võit 32%,Viik 30%,Kyoto Sanga FC võit 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · Üle 2.5 42% · Current selection Alla