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JPN Japon - J-League · Round 1 ·

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.03 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile47%
Nul27%
Victoire à l’extérieur27%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile47% selection probability
Projected score2–1Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Expected goals3.03Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de58% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
47% / 27% / 27%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fagiano Okayama win (26.6%)Double chance1X73.4%1.36
Plus de 58% · Moins de 42%Goals 2.5Plus de58%1.72
Oui 59% · Non 41%Les deux équipes marquentOui59%1.69
3.03 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Cerezo Osaka win47%2.13
Nul27%3.70
Fagiano Okayama win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cerezo Osaka1.86

Domicile share of expected goals 61.4%

Total expected goals3.03Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 58% · Moins de 42%

Fagiano Okayama1.17

Extérieur share of expected goals 38.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 59% · Non 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Cerezo Osaka

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

1.80pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Gagné probability excluding draw
27%
13
Points from supplied form
9
1.86
Expected goals
1.17
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cerezo Osaka signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fagiano Okayama signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cerezo Osaka victoire 47%,Nul 27%,Fagiano Okayama victoire 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.03 · Plus de 2.5 58% · Current selection Plus de