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JPN J1リーグ · Round 1 ·

セレッソ大阪 vs ファジアーノ岡山

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

ホーム form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
アウェイ form
ホーム勝利47%
引き分け27%
アウェイ勝利27%
Full model forecastホーム勝利Tier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callホーム勝利47% selection probability
Projected score2–1セレッソ大阪ファジアーノ岡山
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5オーバー58% for the selected side
両チーム得点はい58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9オーバー 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market選択確率フェアオッズ
47% / 27% / 27%試合結果ホーム勝利47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ファジアーノ岡山 win (26.6%)ダブルチャンス1X73.4%1.36
オーバー 58% · アンダー 42%Goals 2.5オーバー58%1.72
はい 58% · いいえ 42%両チーム得点はい58%1.72
3.01 total expected goals正確なスコア2–1
9.9 expected match cornersコーナーオーバー 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

いいえ snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityフェアオッズ
セレッソ大阪 win47%2.13
引き分け27%3.70
ファジアーノ岡山 win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

セレッソ大阪1.85

ホーム share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: オーバー 58% · アンダー 42%

ファジアーノ岡山1.16

アウェイ share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitはい 58% · いいえ 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

ホーム-context · form sequence

セレッソ大阪

2.60pts / match
試合数5Wins4Drawn1Losses0ポイント13

Signalホーム unbeaten 5/5

アウェイ-context · form sequence

ファジアーノ岡山

0.60pts / match
試合数5Wins1Drawn0Losses4ポイント3

Signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
勝ち probability excluding draw
27%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
セレッソ大阪ファジアーノ岡山
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01セレッソ大阪 signalホーム unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ファジアーノ岡山 signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 引き分け probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

セレッソ大阪 vs ファジアーノ岡山 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: ホーム勝利 · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

セレッソ大阪 勝ち 47%,引き分け 27%,ファジアーノ岡山 勝ち 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · オーバー 2.5 58% · Current selection オーバー