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JPN Japan - J-League · Round 1 ·

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst47%
Gelijkspel27%
Uitwinst27%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst47% selection probability
Projected score2–1Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven58% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
47% / 27% / 27%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fagiano Okayama win (26.6%)Dubbele Kans1X73.4%1.36
Boven 58% · Onder 42%Goals 2.5Boven58%1.72
Ja 58% · Nee 42%Beide teams scorenJa58%1.72
3.01 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Cerezo Osaka win47%2.13
Gelijkspel27%3.70
Fagiano Okayama win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cerezo Osaka1.85

Thuis share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 58% · Onder 42%

Fagiano Okayama1.16

Uit share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nee 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Cerezo Osaka

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis unbeaten 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
27%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cerezo Osaka signalThuis unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fagiano Okayama signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cerezo Osaka gewonnen 47%,Gelijkspel 27%,Fagiano Okayama gewonnen 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Boven 2.5 58% · Current selection Boven