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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Roter Stern Belgrad vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg83%
Unentschieden11%
Auswärtssieg6%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Roter Stern BelgradFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über71% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
83% / 11% / 6%SpielergebnisHeimsieg83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5.5%)Doppelte Chance1X94.5%1.06
Über 71% · Unter 29%Goals 2.5Über71%1.41
Ja 49% · Nein 51%Beide Teams treffenNein51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis3–1
9.1 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapRoter Stern Belgrad winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Roter Stern Belgrad win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Unentschieden11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
FK Novi Pazar win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Roter Stern Belgrad2.94

Heim share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 71% · Unter 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Auswärts share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nein 51%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Roter Stern Belgrad

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Roter Stern BelgradFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Roter Stern Belgrad signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Roter Stern Belgrad vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Roter Stern Belgrad Gewinn 83%,Unentschieden 11%,FK Novi Pazar Gewinn 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Über 2.5 71% · Current selection Über