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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa83%
Empate11%
Vitória visitante6%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Estrela Vermelha de BelgradoFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima71% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
83% / 11% / 6%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5.5%)Dupla Chance1X94.5%1.06
Acima 71% · Abaixo 29%Goals 2.5Acima71%1.41
Sim 49% · Não 51%Ambas as equipes marcamNão51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsPlacar exato3–1
9.1 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapEstrela Vermelha de Belgrado winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Empate11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
FK Novi Pazar win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado2.94

Mandante share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 71% · Abaixo 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Visitante share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitSim 49% · Não 51%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado

2.40pts / match
Jogos5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Pontos12

SignalMandante unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Pontos4

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Estrela Vermelha de BelgradoFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado signalMandante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrela Vermelha de Belgrado ganhou 83%,Empate 11%,FK Novi Pazar ganhou 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Acima 2.5 71% · Current selection Acima