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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Цървена Звезда vs ФК Нови Пазар

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина83%
Равен11%
Победа за госта6%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Цървена ЗвездаФК Нови Пазар
Expected goals3.67Откриване match profile
Goals 2.5Над71% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
83% / 11% / 6%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ФК Нови Пазар win (5.5%)Двоен шанс1X94.5%1.06
Над 71% · Под 29%Goals 2.5Над71%1.41
Да 49% · Не 51%И двата отбора да отбележатНе51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsТочен резултат3–1
9.1 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapЦървена Звезда winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Цървена Звезда win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Равен11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
ФК Нови Пазар win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Цървена Звезда2.94

Домакин share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Откриване

Dedicated goals model: Над 71% · Под 29%

ФК Нови Пазар0.73

Гост share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitДа 49% · Не 51%Match profileОткриване
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Цървена Звезда

2.40pts / match
Изиграни5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Точки12

SignalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

Гост-context · form sequence

ФК Нови Пазар

0.80pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Точки4

SignalДомакин matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Цървена ЗвездаФК Нови Пазар
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Цървена Звезда signalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ФК Нови Пазар signalДомакин matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Цървена Звезда vs ФК Нови Пазар FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Цървена Звезда печеливш 83%,Равен 11%,ФК Нови Пазар печеливш 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Над 2.5 71% · Current selection Над