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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Stella Rossa vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa85%
Pareggio10%
Vittoria ospite5%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 85% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa85% selection probability
Projected score3–1Stella RossaFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra71% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
85% / 10% / 5%Esito partitaVittoria casa85%1.18
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5%)Doppia Chance1X95%1.05
Sopra 71% · Sotto 29%Goals 2.5Sopra71%1.41
Sì 49% · No 51%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsRisultato esatto3–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Stella Rossa win85%1.181.1084.7%+0.3 pp
Pareggio10%10.009.0010.4%-0.4 pp
FK Novi Pazar win5%20.0019.004.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Stella Rossa2.94

Casa share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 71% · Sotto 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Trasferta share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS split 49% · No 51%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Stella Rossa

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
85%
Vinta probability excluding draw
5%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Stella RossaFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Stella Rossa signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk15% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 10%.

Match questions

Stella Rossa vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 3–1 · 85% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Stella Rossa vinta 85%,Pareggio 10%,FK Novi Pazar vinta 5%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Sopra 2.5 71% · Current selection Sopra