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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Crvena Zvezda vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr83%
Uafgjort11%
Udesejr6%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Crvena ZvezdaFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over71% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
83% / 11% / 6%KampresultatHjemmesejr83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5.5%)Dobbeltchance1X94.5%1.06
Over 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Over71%1.41
Ja 49% · Nej 51%Begge hold scorerNej51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
9.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapCrvena Zvezda winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Crvena Zvezda win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Uafgjort11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
FK Novi Pazar win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Crvena Zvezda2.94

Hjemme share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 71% · Under 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Ude share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nej 51%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Crvena Zvezda

2.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Point12

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Point4

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Vundet probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Crvena ZvezdaFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Crvena Zvezda signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Crvena Zvezda vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Crvena Zvezda vundet 83%,Uafgjort 11%,FK Novi Pazar vundet 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Over 2.5 71% · Current selection Over