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HRV Kroatien - HNL · Round 1 ·

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg45%
Unentschieden28%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg45% selection probability
Projected score1–1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Gorica
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter58% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
45% / 28% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Gorica win (27.2%)Doppelte Chance1X72.8%1.37
Über 42% · Unter 58%Goals 2.5Unter58%1.72
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
2.35 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.0 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.5%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win45%2.222.0545%0.0 pp
Unentschieden28%3.573.3027.9%+0.1 pp
HNK Gorica win27%3.703.4027.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.32

Heim share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 42% · Unter 58%

HNK Gorica1.03

Auswärts share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

HNK Gorica

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
11
Points from supplied form
3
1.32
Expected goals
1.03
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Gorica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01NK Lokomotiva Zagreb signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HNK Gorica signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Gewinn 45%,Unentschieden 28%,HNK Gorica Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Über 2.5 42% · Current selection Unter