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HRV Croácia - HNL · Round 1 ·

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa45%
Empate28%
Vitória visitante27%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa45% selection probability
Projected score1–1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Gorica
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo58% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
45% / 28% / 27%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Gorica win (27.2%)Dupla Chance1X72.8%1.37
Acima 42% · Abaixo 58%Goals 2.5Abaixo58%1.72
Sim 48% · Não 52%Ambas as equipes marcamNão52%1.92
2.35 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–1
9.0 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.5%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win45%2.222.0545%0.0 pp
Empate28%3.573.3027.9%+0.1 pp
HNK Gorica win27%3.703.4027.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.32

Mandante share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 42% · Abaixo 58%

HNK Gorica1.03

Visitante share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitSim 48% · Não 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

2.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Pontos11

SignalMandante unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

HNK Gorica

0.60pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Pontos3

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
27%
11
Points from supplied form
3
1.32
Expected goals
1.03
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Gorica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01NK Lokomotiva Zagreb signalMandante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HNK Gorica signalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ganhou 45%,Empate 28%,HNK Gorica ganhou 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Acima 2.5 42% · Current selection Abaixo