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CHE Switzerland Super League · Spiel ·

FC Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–23.14 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg32%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg41%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg41% selection probability
Projected score1–2FC BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.14Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über61% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
32% / 27% / 41%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.9%)Doppelte Chance1273.1%1.37
Über 61% · Unter 39%Goals 2.5Über61%1.64
Ja 62% · Nein 38%Beide Teams treffenJa62%1.61
3.14 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–2
10.8 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
FC Basel win32%3.13
Unentschieden27%3.70
FC Thun win41%2.44

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Basel1.41

Heim share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals3.14Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 61% · Unter 39%

FC Thun1.73

Auswärts share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 62% · Nein 38%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Basel

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkte6

SignalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
41%
7
Points from supplied form
6
1.41
Expected goals
1.73
FC BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Basel signalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

FC Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–2 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Basel Gewinn 32%,Unentschieden 27%,FC Thun Gewinn 41%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.14 · Über 2.5 61% · Current selection Über