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CHE Switzerland Super League · Match ·

Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–23.14 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger50%
Oavgjort24%
Bortaseger27%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger50% selection probability
Projected score1–2BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.14Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över61% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
50% / 24% / 27%MatchresultatHemmaseger50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.8%)Dubbelchans1276.2%1.31
Över 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Över61%1.64
Ja 62% · Nej 38%Båda lagen gör målJa62%1.61
3.14 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.8 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapFC Thun winDifference+1.9 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Basel win50%2.001.8351.4%-1.4 pp
Oavgjort24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp
FC Thun win27%3.703.7525.1%+1.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Basel1.41

Hemma share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals3.14Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 61% · Under 39%

FC Thun1.73

Borta share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 62% · Nej 38%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Basel

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma clean sheets: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Poäng6

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
27%
7
Points from supplied form
6
1.41
Expected goals
1.73
BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Basel signalHemma clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Basel vunnen 50%,Oavgjort 24%,FC Thun vunnen 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.14 · Över 2.5 61% · Current selection Över