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CHE Switzerland Super League · Kamp ·

Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–23.14 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier50%
Uavgjort24%
Borteseier27%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier50% selection probability
Projected score1–2BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.14Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over61% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
50% / 24% / 27%KampresultatHjemmeseier50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.8%)Dobbel sjanse1276.2%1.31
Over 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Over61%1.64
Ja 62% · Nei 38%Begge lag scorerJa62%1.61
3.14 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapFC Thun winDifference+1.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Basel win50%2.001.8351.4%-1.4 pp
Uavgjort24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp
FC Thun win27%3.703.7525.1%+1.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Basel1.41

Hjemme share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals3.14Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 61% · Under 39%

FC Thun1.73

Borte share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 62% · Nei 38%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Basel

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Poeng6

SignalBorte unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
27%
7
Points from supplied form
6
1.41
Expected goals
1.73
BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Basel signalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalBorte unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Basel vunnet 50%,Uavgjort 24%,FC Thun vunnet 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.14 · Over 2.5 61% · Current selection Over