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BRA Brazil Serie A · Maç ·

Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score2–13.15 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır50%
Beraberlik26%
Deplasman kazanır24%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır50% selection probability
Projected score2–1BahiaVasco da Gama
Expected goals3.15Açılış match profile
Goals 2.5Üst61% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varEvet59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Üst 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
50% / 26% / 24%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Vasco da Gama win (24.3%)Çifte Şans1X75.7%1.32
Üst 61% · Alt 39%Goals 2.5Üst61%1.64
Evet 59% · Hayır 41%Karşılıklı gol varEvet59%1.69
3.15 total expected goalsDoğru skor2–1
10.0 expected match cornersKornerlerÜst 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Hayır snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityAdil oran
Bahia win50%2.00
Beraberlik26%3.85
Vasco da Gama win24%4.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Bahia2.03

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 64.4%

Total expected goals3.15Açılış

Dedicated goals model: Üst 61% · Alt 39%

Vasco da Gama1.12

Deplasman share of expected goals 35.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitEvet 59% · Hayır 41%Match profileAçılış
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Bahia

1.80pts / match
Oynanan5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Puan9

SignalEv Sahibi unbeaten 5/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Vasco da Gama

1.00pts / match
Oynanan5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puan5

SignalEv Sahibi matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
24%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.03
Expected goals
1.12
BahiaVasco da Gama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Bahia signalEv Sahibi unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Vasco da Gama signalEv Sahibi matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Bahia vs Vasco da Gama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Bahia kazanç 50%,Beraberlik 26%,Vasco da Gama kazanç 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.15 · 2.5 Üst 61% · Current selection Üst