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BRA Brazil Serie A · Kamp ·

Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.15 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier50%
Uavgjort26%
Borteseier24%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier50% selection probability
Projected score2–1BahiaVasco da Gama
Expected goals3.15Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over61% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
50% / 26% / 24%KampresultatHjemmeseier50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Vasco da Gama win (24.3%)Dobbel sjanse1X75.7%1.32
Over 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Over61%1.64
Ja 59% · Nei 41%Begge lag scorerJa59%1.69
3.15 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Bahia win50%2.00
Uavgjort26%3.85
Vasco da Gama win24%4.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Bahia2.03

Hjemme share of expected goals 64.4%

Total expected goals3.15Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 61% · Under 39%

Vasco da Gama1.12

Borte share of expected goals 35.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 59% · Nei 41%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Bahia

1.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Poeng9

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Vasco da Gama

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
24%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.03
Expected goals
1.12
BahiaVasco da Gama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Bahia signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Vasco da Gama signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Bahia vs Vasco da Gama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Bahia vunnet 50%,Uavgjort 26%,Vasco da Gama vunnet 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.15 · Over 2.5 61% · Current selection Over