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SCO Skottland - Premiership · Round 1 ·

Motherwell vs Falkirk

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger58%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger18%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger58% selection probability
Projected score2–1MotherwellFalkirk
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över56% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
58% / 25% / 18%MatchresultatHemmaseger58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Falkirk win (17.7%)Dubbelchans1X82.3%1.22
Över 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Över56%1.79
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Båda lagen gör målNej52%1.92
2.90 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Motherwell win58%1.72
Oavgjort25%4.00
Falkirk win18%5.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motherwell2.13

Hemma share of expected goals 73.4%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 56% · Under 44%

Falkirk0.77

Borta share of expected goals 26.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Motherwell

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Falkirk

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
18%
6
Points from supplied form
7
2.13
Expected goals
0.77
MotherwellFalkirk
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motherwell signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Falkirk signalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Motherwell vs Falkirk FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motherwell vunnen 58%,Oavgjort 25%,Falkirk vunnen 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Över 2.5 56% · Current selection Över