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SCO Schottland - Premiership · Round 1 ·

Motherwell vs Falkirk

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg53%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg22%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg53% selection probability
Projected score2–1MotherwellFalkirk
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über56% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
53% / 25% / 22%SpielergebnisHeimsieg53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Falkirk win (22%)Doppelte Chance1X78%1.28
Über 56% · Unter 44%Goals 2.5Über56%1.79
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
2.90 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.5 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.7%Largest probability gapMotherwell winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Motherwell win53%1.891.8351.7%+1.3 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.7525.2%-0.2 pp
Falkirk win22%4.554.1023.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motherwell2.13

Heim share of expected goals 73.4%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 56% · Unter 44%

Falkirk0.77

Auswärts share of expected goals 26.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Motherwell

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Falkirk

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
22%
6
Points from supplied form
3
2.13
Expected goals
0.77
MotherwellFalkirk
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motherwell signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Falkirk signalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Motherwell vs Falkirk FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motherwell Gewinn 53%,Unentschieden 25%,Falkirk Gewinn 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Über 2.5 56% · Current selection Über